If I had to narrow long-term health down to just two measurable metrics — two numbers that strongly predict your likelihood of being alive and well 10 years from now — these would be my picks:
- VO₂ Max (aerobic capacity)
- 30-Second Sit-to-Stand Test (physical agility & lower body strength)
These two metrics are simple, testable, and incredibly powerful.
Let’s break down what they mean and how you can assess them today.
1. VO₂ Max: Your Aerobic Capacity
VO₂ max is a measure of how much oxygen your body can use during exercise. In simple terms, it’s your engine size. The bigger the engine, the better your cardiovascular system performs.
Why does this matter?
Because aerobic capacity is highly correlated with all-cause mortality. In plain English: the higher your VO₂ max, the better your chances of being alive in 10 years.
If you want to see how VO₂ max connects to 10-year survivability, this article does a great job breaking it down:
👉 https://www.whyiexercise.com/VO2-Max.html
The numbers are eye-opening.
How to Test Your VO₂ Max Today
You don’t need lab equipment. You can estimate it with two simple field tests.
Option 1: 1.5-Mile Run Test
Run 1.5 miles as fast as you can safely manage. Record your time.
Then plug your result into this calculator:
👉 https://www.trainermetrics.com/fitness-assessment-calculations/vo2max-one-and-half-mile-run/
It will estimate your VO₂ max score based on your time.
Option 2: Rockport 1-Mile Walk Test (Joint-Friendly Option)
If you haven’t run in a while, this is a great alternative.
Walk one mile as fast as you can.
Immediately record your heart rate at the end.
Use this calculator to estimate your VO₂ max:
👉 https://www.trainermetrics.com/fitness-assessment-calculations/vo2max-one-mile-walk/
This option is especially useful for adults over 40 or anyone easing back into structured training.
2. The 30-Second Sit-to-Stand Test
The second metric is physical agility — specifically lower body strength and control.
The 30-second sit-to-stand test is part of the Senior Fitness Test and is a strong indicator of fall risk, especially in adults over 65.
The test is simple:
- Sit in a chair with arms crossed.
- Stand up and sit down as many times as possible in 30 seconds.
- Count your repetitions.
The CDC provides a full breakdown of how to perform it properly here:
👉 https://www.cdc.gov/steadi/media/pdfs/STEADI-Assessment-30Sec-508.pdf
Why This Test Matters So Much
If someone scores below age-adjusted norms, their risk of falling increases significantly.
And falls are not minor events for older adults.
Many of us have experienced this personally. I lost my grandmother after she fell and broke her hip. That injury was essentially the beginning of the end. Once mobility is lost, independence declines quickly.
Research shows that for older adults, the five-year mortality rate after a hip fracture ranges between 37–45%, with some studies reporting even higher numbers in certain populations.
The kicker in some studies up to 50% of the people who performed below average on the test had at least 1 fall
That’s staggering.
Lower body strength and balance aren’t just about being active — they’re about survival.
What Do These Numbers Actually Mean?
Here’s the key:
If your VO₂ max is low → Your cardiovascular risk is higher.
If your sit-to-stand score is low → Your fall risk is higher.
But here’s the empowering part:
Both are trainable.
You can improve VO₂ max through:
- Consistent Zone 2 cardio
- Interval training
- Hiking, biking, rowing, swimming
You can improve sit-to-stand scores through:
- Squats
- Split squats
- Step-ups
- Strength training 2–3x per week
The Bigger Picture
These tests are not meant to scare you.
They’re meant to give you information.
If you or someone you love scores below healthy ranges, it doesn’t mean decline is inevitable. It means there’s an opportunity to intervene now.
Encourage the people you care about to stay strong.
Encourage them to stay active.
Encourage them to test — not guess.
Because strength and aerobic capacity are two of the most powerful predictors of aging well.
And both are within your control.
Thank you for reading!
If you enjoyed this article please send it to someone else who might enjoy it, follow us on social media or send me an email to continue the conversation!
Ian Smith
Owner, Lead Trainer Mountain Speed Strength & Fitness
Evergreen, CO.